Path analysis of aflatoxin contamination on stored maize kernels

The objective of this work was to determine the magnitude of the direct and indirect effects of the physicochemical and microbiological parameters on the occurrence of aflatoxins on stored maize kernels, through path analysis. Data were collected in two experiments: one winter crop (maize harvest in July 2012) and one summer crop (harvest in February 2013). Grains were stored for 12 months in two types of packaging: in conventional polypropylene sacks and bulk storage in metallic silo. Fourteen grain characteristics were evaluated. The matrix of Pearson's correlations was calculated between all parameters, the diagnosis of multicollinearity was performed, and subsequently path analysis was applied with ridge regression. A strong influence of environmental conditions was observed between winter and summer crops, and between season and type of storage, in path analysis coefficients. The variables moisture content, ash, proteins, lipids, undamaged kernels, volumetric weight, incidence of Penicillium sp., Aspergillus sp., and Fusarium sp. should be considered together for defining the probability of aflatoxin occurrence in the bulk of stored kernels.