FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN EU COUNTRIES: AN ATTEMPTED PROJECTION TO 2080

Ensuring food security is a major problem of the contemporary world. The research problem analysed within this study was connected with a tentative answer to the question whether and to what extent agricultural production of individual EU-28 countries guarantees food self-sufficiency at present and may do so in the future. The aim of this study was to investigate the diverse agricultural production levels in EU countries in view of the potential permanent food self-sufficiency. The study was conducted using the deduction and comparative methods based on FAOSTAT, EUROSTAT and BFCN data as well as literature on the subject. The largest food producers in UE-28 are the countries belonging to the EU-15 group: Germany, Italy and Spain, and in the case of some products also Great Britain. Among the EU-13 countries only Polish agriculture has reached the volume of agricultural production comparable to the level in those countries. As a whole the EU-28 group as well as its "old" part, i.e. EU-15, and the "new" part (EU-13) presently are and until 2080 will continue to be self-sufficient in terms of food production. The only exception in this respect is fruit, the demand for which within the forecasted period is and will still be covered by internal EU production in approx. 2/3 in the EU-15, at the forecasted surplus in 2080 in the EU-13 countries. The degree of self-sufficiency varies in individual EU countries. Thus it is necessary to ensure effective mechanisms for surplus reallocation to regions suffering from shortages thanks to promotion of exchange of goods within the EU, while maintaining economic, social and natural sustainability of agricultural production.