Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US

被引:299
作者
Arouri, Mohamed [1 ]
Estay, Christophe [2 ]
Rault, Christophe [3 ]
Roubaud, David [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Auvergne, CRCGM, 11 Blvd Charles Gaulle, F-63000 Clermont Ferrand, France
[2] KEDGE Business Sch, 680 Cours Liberat, F-33400 Talence, France
[3] Univ Orleans, LEO, UMR CNRS 7322, Rue Blois BP 6739, F-45067 Orleans 2, France
[4] MBS, MRM, 2300 Ave Moulins, F-34080 Montpellier, France
关键词
Policy uncertainty; US stock markets; Markov-switching; PRICES; SHOCKS;
D O I
10.1016/j.frl.2016.04.011
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
We contribute to the literature by studying the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock markets in the United States over the period 1900-2014. We show that an increase in policy uncertainty reduces significantly stock returns and that this effect is stronger and persistent during extreme volatility periods. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Inc.
引用
收藏
页码:136 / 141
页数:6
相关论文
共 14 条
  • [1] Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty
    Antonakakis, Nikolaos
    Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
    Filis, George
    [J]. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2013, 120 (01) : 87 - 92
  • [2] Baker S.R., 2014, MEASURING EC P UNPUB
  • [3] The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
    Bloom, Nicholas
    [J]. ECONOMETRICA, 2009, 77 (03) : 623 - 685
  • [4] Brogaard J., 2014, ASSET PRICING UNPUB
  • [5] Are stock prices related to the political uncertainty index in OECD countries? Evidence from the bootstrap panel causality test
    Chang, Tsangyao
    Chen, Wen-Yi
    Gupta, Rangan
    Duc Khuong Nguyen
    [J]. ECONOMIC SYSTEMS, 2015, 39 (02) : 288 - 300
  • [6] Fernandez-Villaverde J., 2014, FISCAL VOLATILITY SH
  • [7] Goetzmann WilliamN., 2001, Journal of Financial Markets, V4, P1, DOI DOI 10.1016/S1386-4181(00)00013-6
  • [8] Gulen Huseyin., 2013, Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment
  • [9] Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China
    Kang, Wensheng
    Ratti, Ronald A.
    [J]. ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION, 2015, 23 (04) : 657 - 676
  • [10] Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return
    Kang, Wensheng
    Ratti, Ronald A.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INSTITUTIONS & MONEY, 2013, 26 : 305 - 318