High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 projections for climate change impact assessments

被引:286
作者
Navarro-Racines, Carlos [1 ,2 ]
Tarapues, Jaime [1 ,2 ]
Thornton, Philip [2 ,3 ]
Jarvis, Andy [1 ,2 ]
Ramirez-Villegas, Julian [1 ,2 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Int Ctr Trop Agr CIAT, Cali, Colombia
[2] CIAT, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, Cali, Colombia
[3] ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya
[4] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
关键词
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; COUPLED MODEL; CHANGE ADAPTATION; PART I; SIMULATION; CIRCULATION; SCENARIOS; INTERPOLATION; CONSERVATION;
D O I
10.1038/s41597-019-0343-8
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Projections of climate change are available at coarse scales (70-400 km). But agricultural and species models typically require finer scale climate data to model climate change impacts. Here, we present a global database of future climates developed by applying the delta method -a method for climate model bias correction. We performed a technical evaluation of the bias-correction method using a 'perfect sibling' framework and show that it reduces climate model bias by 50-70%. The data include monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly total precipitation, and a set of bioclimatic indices, and can be used for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity. The data are publicly available in the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC; cera-www.dkrz.de), as well as in the CCAFS-Climate data portal (http://ccafs-climate.org). The database has been used up to date in more than 350 studies of ecosystem and agricultural impact assessment.
引用
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页数:14
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