Risk of cardiac and non-cardiac adverse events in community-dwelling older patients with atrial fibrillation: a prospective cohort study in the Netherlands

Objectives Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at increased risk of many adverse events, notably stroke. To prevent all adverse outcomes, integrated AF care is advocated though the potential domain for such multidisciplinary management is still unclear. Therefore, insight in the systemic nature of AF and identifying patients at risk of adverse events after oral anticoagulation is needed. The aim of this study is to first describe the risk of hospitalisation and mortality in community-dwelling older patients with AF using anticoagulants, and second to assess the association between traditional cardiac risk factors and these outcomes. Design A prospective cohort. Setting General practice. Participants 2068 patients with AF using oral anticoagulants. Outcome measures We calculated incidence rates (IRs) of ischaemic stroke, bleeding, hospitalisations and mortality, and compared risk factors using Cox regression between those with and without an adverse event, both for cardiac and non-cardiac causes. Results During a median follow-up of 2.7 (IQR 2.2-3.0) years, the IR per 100 person-years was 22.1 for hospitalisations and 6.7 for mortality. Non-cardiac events outnumbered cardiac events (IRs 15.7 vs 7.6 per 100 person-years for hospitalisation, p<0.001and 5.0 vs 1.7, p<0.001 for mortality). As a comparison, the IRs for stroke and major bleeding were 1.7 and 0.8 per 100 person years, respectively. In multivariate models, high age, heart failure and vascular disease were independently associated with all-cause hospitalisation and in addition to diabetes, previous stroke and renal diseasefor all-cause mortality. Conclusions In anticoagulated community-dwelling patients with AF, stroke risk is effectively reduced and thus fairly low, whereas risks of hospitalisation and mortality remain high, importantly mainly for non-cardiac causes. Notably high age, heart failure and vascular disease are predictive for such outcomes and may be of value in identifying high-risk patients in the future. Trial registration number NTR3741.