Rebuttal of "Problems in the extreme value analysis"

被引:21
作者
Cook, Nicholas J. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Birmingham, Dept Civil Engn, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England
关键词
Extremes; Extreme value analysis; Probabilistic design; Structural safety; Return period; Plotting positions; Risk analysis; PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED MOMENTS; PLOTTING POSITIONS; WIND SPEEDS; DISTRIBUTIONS; PAPER;
D O I
10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.08.002
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
This paper rebuts claims published in this journal [33] as well as elsewhere [31,32,34]: (a) that improved methodologies for extreme value analysis (EVA) developed over the past 60 years are invalid; (b) that EVA methodologies should revert to the status quo ante 1939; and (c) that, consequently, all regulations and codes of practice for extreme winds should be reassessed. This paper rebuts these claims and shows current EVA methodologies to be valid. The paper also shows that uncertainty due to sampling error, viz. how well a single observed sample represents the random process sampled, dominates over the choice of methodology. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:418 / 423
页数:6
相关论文
共 44 条
[21]   Extreme value analysis of epoch maxima - convergence, and choice of asymptote [J].
Harris, RI .
JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS, 2004, 92 (11) :897-918
[22]   ANOTHER LOOK AT PLOTTING POSITIONS [J].
HARTER, HL .
COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS, 1984, 13 (13) :1613-1633
[23]  
Hazen A., 1914, T AM SOC CIV ENG, V77, P1547, DOI DOI 10.1155/2014/326579
[24]   ESTIMATION OF THE GENERALIZED EXTREME-VALUE DISTRIBUTION BY THE METHOD OF PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED MOMENTS [J].
HOSKING, JRM ;
WALLIS, JR ;
WOOD, EF .
TECHNOMETRICS, 1985, 27 (03) :251-261
[25]   Plotting positions via maximum-likelihood for a non-standard situation [J].
Jones, D. A. .
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 1997, 1 (02) :357-365
[26]  
Jordaan IJ., 2005, DECISIONS UNCERTAINT, V1
[27]   ON THE CHOICE OF PLOTTING POSITIONS ON PROBABILITY PAPER [J].
KIMBALL, BF .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 1960, 55 (291) :546-560
[28]   PROBABILITY WEIGHTED MOMENTS COMPARED WITH SOME TRADITIONAL TECHNIQUES IN ESTIMATING GUMBEL PARAMETERS AND QUANTILES [J].
LANDWEHR, JM ;
MATALAS, NC ;
WALLIS, JR .
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 1979, 15 (05) :1055-1064
[29]  
Lieblein J., 1974, Report No. NBSIR 74-602
[30]   Automated extraction and classification of thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm wind data for extreme-value analysis [J].
Lombardo, Franklin T. ;
Main, Joseph A. ;
Simiu, Emil .
JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS, 2009, 97 (3-4) :120-131