Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic

被引：3

作者：

Berec, Ludek ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Smycka, Jan ^{[4
]}

Levinsky, Rene ^{[3
,5
]}

Hromadkova, Eva ^{[5
]}

Soltes, Michal ^{[5
]}

Slerka, Josef ^{[3
,6
]}

Tucek, Vit ^{[3
,7
]}

Trnka, Jan ^{[8
]}

Smid, Martin ^{[3
,9
]}

Zajicek, Milan ^{[3
,9
]}

Diviak, Tomas ^{[3
,10
]}

Neruda, Roman ^{[3
,11
]}

Vidnerova, Petra ^{[3
,11
]}

机构：

[1] Univ South Bohemia, Fac Sci, Ctr Math Biol, Dept Math, Branisovska 1760, Ceske Budejovice 37005, Czech Republic

[2] Czech Acad Sci, Biol Ctr, Inst Entomol, Branisovska 31, Ceske Budejovice 37005, Czech Republic

[3] Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic

[4] Ctr Theoret Studies, Husova 4, Prague 11000 1, Czech Republic

[5] CERGE EI, Politickych Veznu 7, Prague 11121 1, Czech Republic

[6] Charles Univ Prague, Fac Arts, New Media Studies, Na Prikope 29, Prague 11000 1, Czech Republic

[7] Univ Zagreb, Dept Math, Bijenicka 30, Zagreb 10000, Croatia

[8] Charles Univ Prague, Fac Med 3, Dept Biochem Cell & Mol Biol, Ruska 87, Prague 10000 10, Czech Republic

[9] Czech Acad Sci, Inst Informat Theory & Automat, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 4, Prague 18200 8, Czech Republic

[10] Univ Manchester, Sch Social Sci, Dept Criminol, Oxford Rd, Manchester, England

[11] Czech Acad Sci, Inst Comp Sci, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 2, Prague 18200 8, Czech Republic

来源：

BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY | 2022年 / 84卷 / 08期

关键词：

Covid-19; pandemic; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Approximate Bayesian computation; Age structure; School closure; APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTATION; DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS; MODEL; CLOSURE; HEALTH;

D O I：

10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.

引用

页数：25

共 50 条

[41] Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe
Stage, Helena B.
Shingleton, Joseph
Ghosh, Sanmitra
Scarabel, Francesca
Pellis, Lorenzo
Finnie, Thomas
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, 376 (1829)
[42] Impact of COVID-19 on Czech Dentistry: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Preliminary Study among Dentists in the Czech Republic
Schmidt, Jan
Waldova, Eliska
Balkova, Stepanka
Suchanek, Jakub
Smucler, Roman
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH, 2021, 18 (17)
[43] Fear, Anger, and Media-Induced Trauma During the Outbreak of COVID-19 in the Czech Republic
Trnka, Radek
Lorencova, Radmila
PSYCHOLOGICAL TRAUMA-THEORY RESEARCH PRACTICE AND POLICY, 2020, 12 (05) : 546 - 549
[44] Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Corporate Social Responsibility in the Hotel Industry - Case of the Czech Republic
Vavrova, Jitka
JOURNAL OF TOURISM AND SERVICES, 2022, 13 (25): : 213 - 229
[45] COVID-19 in 96 Patients With Hematologic Disease: The First Single-center Experience From the Czech Republic
Cernan, Martin
Szotkowski, Tomas
Obr, Ales
Latal, Vojtech
Hlusi, Antonin
Krhovska, Petra
Klementova, Olga
Kolar, Milan
Sauer, Pavel
Faber, Edgar
Furst, Tomas
Papajik, Tomas
CLINICAL LYMPHOMA MYELOMA & LEUKEMIA, 2021, 21 (09) : 606 - 612
[46] Masks in COVID-19: let's unmask the evidence
De Silva, Arjuna P.
Niriella, Madunil A.
de Silva, H. Janaka
EXPERT REVIEW OF RESPIRATORY MEDICINE, 2021, 15 (03) : 293 - 299
[47] Molnupiravir Real-World Utilization in COVID-19 Patients in the Czech Republic
Dlouhy, Pavel
Mucha, Cyril
Mokra, Lenka
Kuhn, Matyas
Hrdlickova, Lenka
Arnet, Urs
Whiteside, Yohance
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL MEDICINE, 2024, 13 (08)
[48] Digitalisation in Hospitals in COVID-19 Times-A Case Study of the Czech Republic
Zimmermannova, Jarmila
Pavlik, Lukas
Chytilova, Ekaterina
ECONOMIES, 2022, 10 (03)
[49] Changes in Online Shopping Behavior in the Czech Republic During the COVID-19 Crisis
Svatosova, Veronika
JOURNAL OF COMPETITIVENESS, 2022, 14 (01) : 155 - 175
[50] Types, Application, and Labelling of Face Masks in the Republic of Croatia During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Tomljenovic, A.
KEMIJA U INDUSTRIJI-JOURNAL OF CHEMISTS AND CHEMICAL ENGINEERS, 2021, 70 (7-8): : 419 - 428

← 1 2 3 4 5 →