Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic

被引：3

作者：

Berec, Ludek ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Smycka, Jan ^{[4
]}

Levinsky, Rene ^{[3
,5
]}

Hromadkova, Eva ^{[5
]}

Soltes, Michal ^{[5
]}

Slerka, Josef ^{[3
,6
]}

Tucek, Vit ^{[3
,7
]}

Trnka, Jan ^{[8
]}

Smid, Martin ^{[3
,9
]}

Zajicek, Milan ^{[3
,9
]}

Diviak, Tomas ^{[3
,10
]}

Neruda, Roman ^{[3
,11
]}

Vidnerova, Petra ^{[3
,11
]}

机构：

[1] Univ South Bohemia, Fac Sci, Ctr Math Biol, Dept Math, Branisovska 1760, Ceske Budejovice 37005, Czech Republic

[2] Czech Acad Sci, Biol Ctr, Inst Entomol, Branisovska 31, Ceske Budejovice 37005, Czech Republic

[3] Ctr Modelling Biol & Social Proc, Na Brehu 497-15, Prague 19000 9, Czech Republic

[4] Ctr Theoret Studies, Husova 4, Prague 11000 1, Czech Republic

[5] CERGE EI, Politickych Veznu 7, Prague 11121 1, Czech Republic

[6] Charles Univ Prague, Fac Arts, New Media Studies, Na Prikope 29, Prague 11000 1, Czech Republic

[7] Univ Zagreb, Dept Math, Bijenicka 30, Zagreb 10000, Croatia

[8] Charles Univ Prague, Fac Med 3, Dept Biochem Cell & Mol Biol, Ruska 87, Prague 10000 10, Czech Republic

[9] Czech Acad Sci, Inst Informat Theory & Automat, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 4, Prague 18200 8, Czech Republic

[10] Univ Manchester, Sch Social Sci, Dept Criminol, Oxford Rd, Manchester, England

[11] Czech Acad Sci, Inst Comp Sci, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 2, Prague 18200 8, Czech Republic

来源：

BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY | 2022年 / 84卷 / 08期

关键词：

Covid-19; pandemic; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Approximate Bayesian computation; Age structure; School closure; APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTATION; DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS; MODEL; CLOSURE; HEALTH;

D O I：

10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.

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