A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD

被引：0

作者：

Guo Rong ^{[1
,2
]}

Qi Liang-bo ^{[1
]}

Ge Qian-qian ^{[3
]}

Weng Yong-yuan ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Shanghai Cent Meteorol Observ, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China

[2] CMA, Shanghai Typhoon Inst, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China

[3] Zhejiang Univ Finance & Econ, Hangzhou 300016, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

[4] Shanghai Meteorol Bur, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY | 2018年 / 24卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

typhoon path; real-time correction; ensemble forecast; track errors;

D O I：

10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.004

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36h.

引用

页码：42 / 48

页数：7

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