New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic

被引：1
作者：
Le Bourg, Eric [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Toulouse, CNRS, Ctr Rech Cognit Anim CRCA, Cenre Biol Integrat CBI Toulouse,UPS, Toulouse, France
来源：
BIOGERONTOLOGY | 2021年 / 22卷 / 06期
关键词：
Life expectancy at birth; Forecasts; Pension costs; France; USA; Japan;
D O I：
10.1007/s10522-021-09942-x
中图分类号：
R592 [老年病学]; C [社会科学总论];
学科分类号：
03 ; 0303 ; 100203 ;
摘要：
Life expectancy at birth (e0) forecasts are used to estimate future pension costs. Previous French official forecasts have often overestimated e0. Recent forecasts published by demographers provide higher e0 estimates than official forecasts for France, Sweden, Japan and the USA, and do not consider that e0 could decrease, as in previous years because of flus, heatwaves, or other outbreaks. Too optimistic forecasts make that governments may overestimate future pension needs.
引用
收藏
页码：655 / 658
页数：4
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