A novel prognostic index for oral squamous cell carcinoma patients with surgically treated

This study aims to develop an applicable prognostic index with conventional factors for predicting outcome of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). We performed a prospective study in a large cohort of 892 OSCC patients in Fujian, China. All patients were randomly divided into a discovery group and validation group. A prognostic index was developed based on beta value of each significant variable obtained from the multivariate Cox regression model. The results from discovery and validation set demonstrated that the model-4(included clinical stage, tumor differentiation, ill-fitting denture, oral hygiene and cigarette smoking) was the optimal model. The optimal cutoff points of prognostic index (1.88 and 2.80) were determined by X-tile program which categorized all subjects into low, middle and high risk subsets. Patients in high risk group were at the greatest risk of death compared with those in low risk group (HR: 6.02; 95% CI: 4.33-8.38). Moreover, there was a significant tendency of the worse overall survival with the higher prognostic index (P-trend < 0.001). The discriminatory capacity of prognostic index was 0.661(95% CI: 0.621-0.701). This study developed and validated a prognostic index that is an economical and useful tool for predicting the clinical outcomes of OSCC patients in Southeast China. Future randomized trials with larger cohort are required to confirm our results.