Sequential optimizing strategy in multi-dimensional bounded forecasting games

被引:9
作者
Kumon, Masayuki
Takemura, Akimichi [1 ]
Takeuchi, Kei [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 1138656, Japan
[2] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Econ, Tokyo 1138656, Japan
关键词
Game theoretic probability; Holder exponent; Information criterion; Kullback-Leibler divergence; Quadratic variation; Strong law of large numbers; Universal portfolio; ASSET TRADING GAMES; COIN-TOSSING GAMES; CONTINUOUS-TIME; ITERATED LOGARITHM; INFORMATION; EMERGENCE; LAW;
D O I
10.1016/j.spa.2010.09.004
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
We propose a sequential optimizing betting strategy in the multi dimensional bounded forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001) [10] By studying the asymptotic behavior of its capital process we prove a generalization of the strong law of large numbers where the convergence rate of the sample mean vector depends on the growth rate of the quadratic variation process The. growth rate of the quadratic variation process may be slower than the number of rounds or may even be zero We also introduce an information criterion for selecting efficient betting items These results art.. then applied to multiple asset trading strategies in discrete time and continuous time games In the case of a continuous time game we present a measure of the jaggedness of a vector valued continuous process Our results are examined by several numerical examples (c) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved
引用
收藏
页码:155 / 183
页数:29
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