Risk assessment for marine ecosystem-based management (EBM)

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is a holistic way to manage the marine environment, involving partnerships between people and the recognition of ecological complexity. As we progress towards EBM, risk assessments must move beyond an evaluation of the direct impacts of a single stressor on a species or habitat. Here, we propose 12 risk assessment criteria that explicitly reflect the principles of EBM. These criteria include the need to assess risk to multiple ecosystem components and values, evaluate place and time-specific ecological complexity, evaluate recovery, accommodate different knowledge types and communicate uncertainty. Contemporary risk assessment approaches rarely meet all 12 criteria and whilst many approaches could be adapted to do so, some are more easily modified than others. Risk assessment approaches that meet our criteria have the greatest potential to support decision-making in an EBM context and thereby safeguard our marine environments and their values for future generations.