Export tax rebates and resource misallocation: Evidence from a large developing country

The export tax rebate policy is one of the most frequently used policy instruments by Chinese policy-makers. This paper provides a vital analysis of its allocation effects. We use customs transactions, tax administration and firm-level data to measure the effect of variation in export tax rebates, taking advantage of the large policy change in 2004. A difference-in-difference approach allows us to compare the production and pricing decisions of eligible versus non-eligible firms and the distributional implications. We tie these distributional results to a structural model akin to Hsieh and Klenow (2009) where incomplete tax rebates act as a tax on revenue of export sales. A reduction in tax rebates shifts production away from rebate-eligible firms and decreases allocative efficiency. Our takeaway is that by adjusting its value-added tax policy as a part of broader policy objectives, China introduces an allocative efficiency dimension that must be taken into consideration.