Noncardiac determinants of death and intensive care morbidity in adult congenital heart disease surgery

Objectives: Predicting perioperative morbidity and mortality in cardiac surgery for adult congenital heart disease is challenging because it encompasses a wide spectrum of disease. There is a paucity of published outcome data, and there are no perioperative risk score calculators for this population group. We set out to identify robust determinants of morbidity and mortality in this patient population under going cardiac surgery. Methods: We collected data on 20 socioeconomic and pathophysiologic variables in 784 consecutive adults with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2015 at a single center. Using logistic regression, we sought to identify which of these factors were associated with the primary composite adverse outcome of in-hospital mortality, prolonged ventilation exceeding 7 days, and severe acute renal failure requiring dialysis. Secondary outcome analysis identified variables that were significant predictors for 1-year mortality. Results: Composite adverse outcome occurred in 54 of 784 patients (6.9%). Significant predictors of the composite adverse outcome by multivariate regression include Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease modified score, cognitive impairment, number of chest wall incisions from previous cardiac surgery, body mass index, and cardiac anatomic category. Two survivors of the composite adverse outcome died within a few weeks postdischarge. Only 657 of 784 patients had 1-year follow-up data; 40 of 657 patients died at 1 year. One-year mortality was predicted by anticoagulation, Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease modified score, and anatomic category. Conclusions: Recognition and quantification of noncardiac comorbidities preoperatively predict the risk of adverse events and mortality in addition to cardiac anatomic factors.