Prediction of Domestic Hot Water Temperature in a District Heating Network

With the fourth generation of district heating networks in sight, opportunities are rising for better services and optimized planning of energy production. Indeed, the more intensive data collection is expected to allow for load prediction, customer profiling, etc. In this context, our work aims at a better understanding of customer profiles from the captured data. Given the variety of households, such profiles are difficult to capture. This study explores the possibility to predict domestic hot water (DHW) usage. Such prediction is made challenging due to the presence of two components in the signal, the first one bound to the physical properties of the DHW distribution system, the second one bound to the human patterns related to DHW consumption. Our contributions include (1) the analysis of recurrent neural network architectures based on GRU, (2) the inclusion of state-based labels inferred in an unsupervised way to simulate domain knowledge, (3) the comparison of different features. Results show that the physical contribution in the signal can be forecasted successfully across households. On the contrary, the stochastic "human" component is harder to predict and would need further research, either by improving the modelling or by including alternate signals.