Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes

被引：345

作者：

Santer, BD ^{[1
]}

Wehner, MF

Wigley, TML

Sausen, R

Meehl, GA

Taylor, KE

Ammann, C

Arblaster, J

Washington, WM

Boyle, JS

Brüggemann, W

机构：

[1] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550 USA

[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[3] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80303 USA

[4] Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt, Inst Phys Atmosphare, D-82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany

[5] Univ Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England

来源：

SCIENCE | 2003年 / 301卷 / 5632期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.1084123

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for similar to80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.

引用

页码：479 / 483

页数：5

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