Evaluation of the impact of blockchain technology on supply chain using cognitive maps

Blockchain technology have gained importance in the supply chain with its transparency, robustness, and elimination of intermediaries. Different impacts are expected with the integration of blockchain technology in supply chain processes. Comprehensive evaluation methods are required to take important strategic decisions about blockchain technology. To examine the impact of blockchain technology, factors of cost, risks, business, and customer related benefits should be considered comprehensively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relationships among the factors to evaluate blockchain technology impact on supply chain. Cognitive maps (CM) methods which are hesitant fuzzy cognitive map (HFCM), probabilistic linguistic fuzzy cognitive map (PL-FCM) and rough set cognitive map (RS-CM) are used in this study. Also, PL-FCM that is generated based on probabilistic linguistic term sets is used for the first time in this study as a novel cognitive model. This study provides a contribution by developing cognitive map methods to measure and examine the impact of blockchain technology on supply chain for the first time. Firstly, the impacts of blockchain technology on supply chain and their relations are formed according to expert views and literature review. Then, five scenarios are considered using cognitive mapping methods, future predictions in terms of supply chain management are determined. Sensitivity analysis is performed. In this way, firms can analyze various implications and under what conditions how blockchain technology will have an impact on the supply chain.