Survival prediction in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastases: Clinical risk scores and tumor response to chemotherapy

Clinical risk scores and response to pre-operative chemotherapy are prognostic factors of colorectal liver metastases. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of combining these factors to predict patient survival and to select patients for curative therapy. The study included 189 patients who underwent hepatectomy following neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, for initially resectable colorectal liver metastases, between January 2005 and December 2015. Patients were stratified into four sub-groups: A1-2, low clinical risk scores with/without a response to pre-operative chemotherapy; and B1-2, high clinical risk scores with or without a response to pre-operative chemotherapy. Treatment and survival data were analysed. Survival was significantly longer in patients with low clinical risk scores and a response to pre-operative chemotherapy; these factors were confirmed as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Combining clinical risk score and chemotherapy response classification, patient survival was significantly longer for groups A1-2/B1 compared with for group B2, in which only 10.2% of patients were alive after 5 years. Of those with no response to first-line chemotherapy, survival was significantly longer in patients who responded to second-line chemotherapy. A combined clinical risk score and chemotherapy response classification may aid in identifying suitable candidates for potentially curative therapy.