Taking the road less traveled by: Does conversation eradicate pernicious cascades?

被引：18

作者：

Cao, H. Henry ^{[2
]}

Han, Bing ^{[3
,4
]}

Hirshleifer, David ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Irvine, Merage Sch Business, Irvine, CA 92697 USA

[2] Cheung Kong Grad Sch Business, Beijing, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Texas Austin, McCombs Sch Business, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[4] Peking Univ, Guanghua Sch Management, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY | 2011年 / 146卷 / 04期

关键词：

Information cascades; Network communications; Long-run efficiency; WORD-OF-MOUTH; INFORMATIONAL CASCADES; HERD BEHAVIOR; CONFORMITY; MODEL; FADS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jet.2011.03.010

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We offer a model in which sequences of individuals often converge upon poor decisions and are prone to fads, despite communication of the payoff outcomes from past choices. This reflects both direct and indirect action-based information externalities. In contrast with previous cascades literature, cascades here are spontaneously dislodged and in general have a probability less than one of lasting forever. Furthermore, the ability of individuals to communicate can reduce average decision accuracy and welfare. Published by Elsevier Inc.

引用

页码：1418 / 1436

页数：19

共 34 条

[1]

Anderson LR, 1997, AM ECON REV, V87, P847

[2]

[Anonymous], 1974, Elementary probability theory with stochastic processes

[3]

[Anonymous], 2001, Asset Pricing Under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding

[4] Word-of-mouth learning [J].

Banerjee, A ;

Fudenberg, D .

GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR, 2004, 46 (01) :1-22

[5] A SIMPLE-MODEL OF HERD BEHAVIOR [J].

BANERJEE, AV .

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, 1992, 107 (03) :797-817

[6] A THEORY OF FADS, FASHION, CUSTOM, AND CULTURAL-CHANGE AS INFORMATIONAL CASCADES [J].

BIKHCHANDANI, S ;

HIRSHLEIFER, D ;

WELCH, I .

JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 1992, 100 (05) :992-1026

[7] Learning from the behavior of others: Conformity, fads, and informational cascades [J].

Bikhchandani, S ;

Hirshleifer, D ;

Welch, I .

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES, 1998, 12 (03) :151-170

[8] Strategic experimentation [J].

Bolton, P ;

Harris, C .

ECONOMETRICA, 1999, 67 (02) :349-374

[9] SECTORAL SHOCKS, LEARNING, AND AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS [J].

CAPLIN, A ;

LEAHY, J .

REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, 1993, 60 (04) :777-794

[10] Distinguishing informational cascades from herd behavior in the laboratory [J].

Çelen, B ;

Kariv, S .

AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2004, 94 (03) :484-498

← 1 2 3 4 →