Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance

被引:76
作者
Ogden, Nicholas H. [1 ]
机构
[1] Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Natl Microbiol Lab, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, 3200 Sicotte, St Hyacinthe, PQ J2S 2M2, Canada
关键词
climate change; vector-borne disease; public health; WEST NILE VIRUS; MOSQUITO SURVEILLANCE; RECENT EPIDEMIOLOGY; MALARIA RESURGENCE; ENCEPHALITIS; EMERGENCE; FUTURE; DENGUE; TRANSMISSION; CHIKUNGUNYA;
D O I
10.1093/femsle/fnx186
中图分类号
Q93 [微生物学];
学科分类号
071005 ; 100705 ;
摘要
There has been much debate as to whether or not climate change will have, or has had, any significant effect on risk from vector-borne diseases. The debate on the former has focused on the degree to which occurrence and levels of risk of vector-borne diseases are determined by climate-dependent or independent factors, while the debate on the latter has focused on whether changes in disease incidence are due to climate at all, and/or are attributable to recent climate change. Here I review possible effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases, methods used to predict these effects and the evidence to date of changes in vector-borne disease risks that can be attributed to recent climate change. Predictions have both over-and underestimated the effects of climate change. Mostly under-estimations of effects are due to a focus only on direct effects of climate on disease ecology while more distal effects on society's capacity to control and prevent vector-borne disease are ignored. There is increasing evidence for possible impacts of recent climate change on some vector-borne diseases but for the most part, observed data series are too short (or non-existent), and impacts of climate-independent factors too great, to confidently attribute changing risk to climate change.
引用
收藏
页数:8
相关论文
共 84 条
[71]   Dengue and dengue vectors in the WHO European region: past, present, and scenarios for the future [J].
Schaffner, Francis ;
Mathis, Alexander .
LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2014, 14 (12) :1271-1280
[72]   Altitudinal Changes in Malaria Incidence in Highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia [J].
Siraj, A. S. ;
Santos-Vega, M. ;
Bouma, M. J. ;
Yadeta, D. ;
Ruiz Carrascal, D. ;
Pascual, M. .
SCIENCE, 2014, 343 (6175) :1154-1158
[73]   Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa [J].
Stern, David I. ;
Gething, Peter W. ;
Kabaria, Caroline W. ;
Temperley, William H. ;
Noor, Abdisalan M. ;
Okiro, Emelda A. ;
Shanks, G. Dennis ;
Snow, Robert W. ;
Hay, Simon I. .
PLOS ONE, 2011, 6 (09)
[74]   Climate Change Cannot Explain the Upsurge of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Baltics [J].
Sumilo, Dana ;
Asokliene, Loreta ;
Bormane, Antra ;
Vasilenko, Veera ;
Golovljova, Irina ;
Randolph, Sarah E. .
PLOS ONE, 2007, 2 (06)
[75]   Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa [J].
Tanser, FC ;
Sharp, B ;
le Sueur, D .
LANCET, 2003, 362 (9398) :1792-1798
[76]   Impact of air temperature variation on the ixodid ticks habitat and tick-borne encephalitis incidence in the Russian Arctic: the case of the Komi Republic [J].
Tokarevich, N. ;
Tronin, A. ;
Gnativ, B. ;
Revich, B. ;
Blinova, O. ;
Evengard, B. .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CIRCUMPOLAR HEALTH, 2017, 76 :1-13
[77]   The impact of climate change on the expansion of Ixodes persulcatus habitat and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the north of European Russia [J].
Tokarevich, Nikolay K. ;
Tronin, Andrey A. ;
Blinova, Olga V. ;
Buzinov, Roman V. ;
Boltenkov, Vitaliy P. ;
Yurasova, Elena D. ;
Nurse, Jo .
GLOBAL HEALTH ACTION, 2011, 4 :8448
[78]   Chikungunya and dengue autochthonous cases in Europe, 2007-2012 [J].
Tomasello, Danilo ;
Schlagenhauf, Patricia .
TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE, 2013, 11 (05) :274-284
[79]   How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks [J].
Woolhouse, Mark .
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2011, 366 (1573) :2045-2054
[80]   Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada [J].
Yusa, Anna ;
Berry, Peter ;
Cheng, June J. ;
Ogden, Nicholas ;
Bonsal, Barrie ;
Stewart, Ronald ;
Waldick, Ruth .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH, 2015, 12 (07) :8359-8412