FUTURE CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OVER TAMILNADU STATE, INDIA

The present study analyses future climate uncertainty for the 21st century over Tamilnadu state for six weather parameters: solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rainfall. The climate projection data was dynamically downscaled using high resolution regional climate models, PRECIS and RegCM4 at 0.22 degrees x0.22 degrees resolution. PRECIS RCM was driven by HadCM3Q ensembles (HQ0, HQ1, HQ3, HQ16) lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and RegCM4 driven by ECHAM5 LBCs for 130 years (1971-2100). The deviations in weather variables between the end century (2071-2100) and the base years (1971-2000) were calculated for all grids of Tamilnadu for ascertaining the uncertainty. These deviations indicated that all model members projected no appreciable difference in relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. The temperature (maximum and minimum) however showed a definite increasing trend with 1.7 to 3.7 degrees C and 1.9 to 4.3 degrees C, respectively. The model members for rainfall exhibited a high uncertainty as they projected high negative and positive deviations (-325 to 784 mm). The spatial representation of maximum and minimum temperature indicated a definite rhythm of increment from coastal area to inland. However, variability in projected rainfall was noticed.