Energy decentralization in South Africa: Why past failure points to future success

South Africa's energy transition has stalled on two related fronts: its rollout of renewable energy (RE) sources has suffered interruptions and delays, proceeding too slowly; and its extension of reliable and affordable electricity has been hampered by both irregularities of coal-generated supply, as well as austerity-driven delivery policies. This paper argues however that the concurrence of two, previously sequential historical events - fiscal crisis and intra-regime schism - currently augur more auspiciously for a more concerted move toward ED. After explaining the logic of tipping points and critical junctures, it shows why prior attempts at decentralization failed, how centralised RE has disempowered local communities, and why this may change with the planned unbundling of the country's energy parastatal, Eskom.