Transcription Factor 7-Like 2 (TCF7L2) Gene Polymorphism and Progression From Single to Multiple Autoantibody Positivity in Individuals at Risk for Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE The type 2 diabetes-associated alleles at the TCF7L2 locus mark a type 1 diabetes phenotype characterized by single islet autoantibody positivity as well as lower glucose and higher C-peptide measures. Here, we studied whether the TCF7L2 locus influences progression of islet autoimmunity, from single to multiple (>= 2) auto-antibody positivity, in relatives of patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We evaluated 244 participants in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study with confirmed single autoantibody positivity at screening and Immunochip single nucleotide polymorphism data (47.5% male; median age 12.8 years, range 1.2-45.9; 90.2% white). We analyzed risk allele frequency at TCF7L2 rs4506565 (in linkage disequilibrium with rs7903146). Altogether, 62.6% participants carried >= 1 risk allele. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier statistical methods were used. RESULTS During follow-up (median 5.2 years, range 0.2-12.6), 62% of the single autoantibody-positive participants developed multiple autoantibody positivity. In the overall cohort, the TCF7L2 locus did not significantly predict progression to multiple autoantibody positivity. However, among single GAD65 autoantibody-positive participants (n = 158), those who carried >= 1 risk allele had a lower rate of progression to multiple autoantibody positivity (hazard ratio [HR] 0.65, P = 0.033) than those who did not, after adjustment for HLA risk haplotypes and age. Among subjects who were either IA-2 or insulin autoantibody positive only, carrying >= 1 TCF7L2 risk allele was not a significant factor overall, but in overweight or obese participants, it increased the risk of progression to multiple autoantibody positivity (HR 3.02, P = 0.016) even with adjustment for age. CONCLUSIONS The type 2 diabetes-associated TCF7L2 locus influences progression of islet autoimmunity, with differential effects by autoantibody specificity and interaction by obesity/overweight.