EMERGING PATTERNS IN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WITH MULTIPLE AGENTS

被引:0
作者
Alvarez, Emiliano [1 ]
London, Silvia [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Republica, Res Grp Econ Dynam, Montevideo, Uruguay
[2] Univ Nacl Sur, IIESS UNS Conicet, San Andres 800, RA-8000 Bahia Blanca, Buenos Aires, Argentina
[3] Univ Nacl Sur, Dept Econ, San Andres 800, RA-8000 Bahia Blanca, Buenos Aires, Argentina
来源
JOURNAL OF DYNAMICS AND GAMES | 2020年 / 7卷 / 03期
关键词
Dynamical systems; heterogeneous agents; inflation expectations; econophysics; monetary policy; STICKY INFORMATION; DISTRIBUTIONS; UNCERTAINTY; BEHAVIOR;
D O I
10.3934/jdg.2020012
中图分类号
O1 [数学];
学科分类号
0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要
Macroeconomic theory and central Banks' policy recommendations have analyzed for decades the link between the expected value of future inflation and its subsequent realization. Agents' inflation expectations have thus become a fundamental input of the economic policy: they allow to know if economic agents are synchronized with the policies and allow the Central Banks to anticipate the market trends. In this paper, we found evidence for the case of Uruguay of a discrepancy between the distribution of agents' inflation expectations and the distribution expected by traditional models. A first consequence is an increase in uncertainty in the estimates; problems related to its asymptotic distribution and the assumptions that arise from this aggregate distribution are analyzed. Another consequence is related to the existence of a structure in the data and the notion of equilibrium in the model. It is concluded that a discussion regarding the nature of the economic phenomenon is essential for the correct specification of the model studied.
引用
收藏
页码:175 / 184
页数:10
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