Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040

Objectives The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype. Methods Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006-2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years. Results The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology. Conclusions As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometiial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.