A parametrized nonlinear predictive control strategy for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing measures in Brazil

被引:29
作者
Morato, Marcelo M. [1 ]
Pataro, Igor M. L. [3 ]
da Costa, Marcus V. Americano [2 ]
Normey-Rico, Julio E. [1 ]
机构
[1] Fed Univ Santa Catarina UFSC, Dept Automat & Syst DAS, Renewable Energy Res Grp GPER, Florianopolis, SC, Brazil
[2] Fed Univ Bahia UFBA, Dept Chem Engn DEQ, 02 Prof Aristides Novis St, BR-40210910 Salvador, BA, Brazil
[3] Univ Almeria, Dept Informat, CIESOL, Ctra Sacramento S-N, Almeria 04120, Spain
关键词
Nonlinear Model Predictive Control; COVID-19; Social isolation; SIRD Model; System Identification; EPIDEMIC; SCIENCE;
D O I
10.1016/j.isatra.2020.12.012
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first registered in Brazil by the end of February 2020. Since then, the country counts over 150000 deaths due to COVID-19 and faces a profound social and economic crisis; there is also an ongoing health catastrophe, with the majority of hospital beds in many Brazilian cities currently occupied with COVID-19 patients. Thus, a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) scheme used to plan appropriate social distancing measures (and relaxations) in order to mitigate the effects of this pandemic is formulated in this paper. The strategy is designed upon an adapted data-driven Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model, which includes time-varying auto-regressive immunological parameters. A novel identification procedure is proposed, composed of analytical regressions, Least-Squares optimization and auto-regressive model fits. The adapted SIRD model is validated with real data and able to adequately represent the contagion curves over large forecast horizons. The NMPC strategy is designed to generate piecewise constant quarantine guidelines, which can be reassessed (relaxed/strengthened) each week. Simulation results show that the proposed NMPC technique is able to mitigate the number of infections and progressively loosen social distancing measures. With respect to a "no-control" condition, the number of deaths could be reduced in up to 30% if the proposed NMPC coordinated health policy measures are enacted. (C) 2020 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:197 / 214
页数:18
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