Predictors of Chronic Kidney Disease in Korean Patients with Lupus Nephritis

Objective. Since chronic kidney disease (CKD) is closely associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality as well as endstage renal disease, prediction of progressive CKD is a clinically important issue. We investigated the independent risk factors for the development of CKD in patients with lupus nephritis (LN). Methods. The cohort included 322 Korean patients diagnosed with LN between 1985 and 2010. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical and laboratory indices, treatment response, the final renal function, and the biopsy findings. The timing and cumulative risk of developing CKD were identified by Kaplan-Meier methods. The independent risk factors for developing CKD were examined by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Results. The median followup time after the diagnosis of LN was 84 months. CKD occurs in 22% of the patients within 10 years after the diagnosis of LN. The probability of developing CKD was significantly associated with the onset time of LN (delayed-onset LN vs initial-onset LN; HR 2.904, p = 0.003), deteriorated renal function [an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) body surface area] at the onset of LN (HR 7.458, p < 0.001), relapse of LN after achieving remission (HR 2.806, p = 0.029), and resistance to induction therapy (HR 8.120, p < 0.001). Conclusion. Our results demonstrate that delayed-onset LN, a decreased eGFR at the time of LN onset, and the failure to achieve a sustained remission are predictors for the development of CKD in Korean patients with LN. (First Release Oct 1 2011; J Rheumatol 2011;38:2588-97; doi:10.3899/jrheum.110363)