Industrial transmission effect of international metal price shocks in perspective of industry chain

被引：8
作者：
Gao Chuan [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ]
Huang Jian-bai [1 ,2 ]
Chen Jin-yu [1 ]
Tang Wen-yuan [1 ]
Wang Zhi-ping [1 ]
Liu Jing-xing [1 ]
机构：
[1] Cent S Univ, Sch Business, Changsha 410083, Hunan, Peoples R China
[2] Cent S Univ, Inst Met Resources Strategy, Changsha 410083, Hunan, Peoples R China
[3] Hunan Acad Agr Sci, Changsha 410125, Hunan, Peoples R China
[4] Hunan Agr Prod Proc Inst, Changsha 410125, Hunan, Peoples R China
来源：
JOURNAL OF CENTRAL SOUTH UNIVERSITY | 2018年 / 25卷 / 12期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
international metal prices; industry chain; SVAR model; transmission effect; OIL; IMPACT; MACROECONOMY; INFLATION; OUTPUT;
D O I：
10.1007/s11771-018-3963-9
中图分类号：
TF [冶金工业];
学科分类号：
0806 ;
摘要：
Based on a new perspective of industry chain and selecting monthly data from February 2006 to December 2015, this paper chooses eight Chinese industrial sectors to construct a SVAR model reflecting internal relationships among metal chains, analyzes the direct effects and indirect effects of international metal prices on output of various links in metal chains, then it investigates the main transmission path of international metal price shocks through decomposing the inflation pressure sources in metal chains. The results show that international metal price shocks not only affect industrial output in a direct way, but also indirectly affect the growth of output through the increased pressure on industrial inflation and then triggering a tightening of monetary policy implementation. Affected by factors such as the lack of market demand and the price transmission mechanism blocking, the direct effects of international metal price shocks mainly impact the upstream and midstream industry, while the downstream industry is mainly affected by indirect effects; in addition, the international metal price shocks have spillover effects on the industrial inflation, and transmit along the industry chain from upstream to downstream, and their strength weakens in sequence.
引用
收藏
页码：2929 / 2943
页数：15
相关论文
共 38 条
  • [1] Ahmed K., 2018, RESOURCES POLICY
  • [2] [Anonymous], 1986, Q REV, DOI DOI 10.21034/QR.1011
  • [3] Bernanke BenS., 1986, CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER C, V25, P49, DOI DOI 10.1016/0167-2231(86)90037-0
  • [4] Cao F., 2015, CHINESE J MANAGEMENT, V23, P45, DOI [10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.07.006, DOI 10.16381/J.CNKI.ISSN1003-207X.2015.07.006]
  • [5] The relationship between global oil price shocks. and China's output: A time-varying analysis
    Cross, Jamie
    Nguyen, Bao H.
    [J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2017, 62 : 79 - 91
  • [6] Do oil price shocks matter?: Evidence for some European countries
    Cuñado, J
    de Gracia, FP
    [J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2003, 25 (02) : 137 - 154
  • [7] Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies
    Cunado, Juncal
    Jo, Soojin
    Perez de Gracia, Fernando
    [J]. ENERGY POLICY, 2015, 86 : 867 - 879
  • [8] [丁志华 Ding Zhihua], 2013, [资源科学, Resources Science], V35, P2467
  • [9] OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY SINCE WORLD-WAR-II
    HAMILTON, JD
    [J]. JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 1983, 91 (02) : 228 - 248
  • [10] Han, 2015, CHINA IND EC, V12, P51
1234