What are the driving forces of international business cycles?

被引：88
作者：
Crucini, Mario J. [1 ,2 ]
Kose, M. Ayhan [3 ]
Otrok, Christopher [4 ]
机构：
[1] Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Econ, Nashville, TN 37235 USA
[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[3] Int Monetary Fund, Res Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA
[4] Univ Virginia, Dept Econ, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
来源：
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS | 2011年 / 14卷 / 01期
基金：
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词：
International business cycles; Productivity shocks; Oil prices; Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium; Bayesian estimation; Factor model;
D O I：
10.1016/j.red.2010.09.001
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models; productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the terms of trade and oil prices. We find a large common factor in oil prices, productivity, and the terms of trade. Productivity is the main driving force, with other drivers isolated to particular nations or sub-periods. Along these lines, we document shifts in the correlation of the common component of each driver with the overall G-7 cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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页码：156 / 175
页数：20
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