Projections of subcontinental changes in seasonal precipitation over the two major river basins in South America under an extreme climate scenario

被引:13
作者
Gomes, Geraldo D. [1 ]
Nunes, Ana M. B. [1 ]
Libonati, Renata [1 ]
Ambrizzi, Tercio [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Meteorol, BR-21941916 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Atmospher Sci, BR-05508090 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
基金
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词
Amazon basin; La Plata basin; Monsoon; Low-level jet; Subtropical jet stream; South America; MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SCALE COMMON FEATURES; BAIU FRONTAL ZONE; LEVEL JET EAST; METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT; CHANGE IMPACT; EL-NINO; PART I; MONSOON;
D O I
10.1007/s00382-021-05955-x
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
The increase in the greenhouse gas emissions leads to changes in the mechanisms connecting the two major river basins in South America, the Amazon and La Plata basins, at subcontinental scale. Studies very often neglect to address the impact of the model-component choices on the projected change in precipitation in the two river basins. Within that context, the present study investigates the probable causes of changes in the hydroclimate of the two river basins through projections from three global climate models-driven by the pathway with no stabilization of the emissions growth by 2100-with focus on the warming of regions in the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Because the annual cycle of the precipitation differs in the northern and southern portions of the two river basins, changes are then preferably assessed in subregions. The model-dependent results project the following changes in the physical and dynamic mechanisms toward the end of the twenty-first century: (i) intensification of the 850-hPa northerly moisture flux from the western tropical Atlantic in the eastern side of the central Andes; and (ii) increase in the magnitude of the 200-hPa wind core whose location largely coincides with the La Plata basin. Those changes may increase the precipitation in the northern Amazon and southern La Plata basins by the end of the century. In contrast, the decrease in precipitation in the northern La Plata basin may result from the decrease in length of the rainy season associated with South American Monsoon System.
引用
收藏
页码:1147 / 1169
页数:23
相关论文
共 114 条
[1]   On methods for solving the oceanic equations of motion in generalized vertical coordinates [J].
Adcroft, A ;
Hallberg, R .
OCEAN MODELLING, 2006, 11 (1-2) :224-233
[2]  
Adler RF, 2003, J HYDROMETEOROL, V4, P1147, DOI 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO
[3]  
2
[4]   Large scale and synoptic features associated with extreme precipitation over South America: A review and case studies for the first decade of the 21st century [J].
Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca .
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2012, 118 :27-40
[5]   The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations [J].
Anderson, JL ;
Balaji, V ;
Broccoli, AJ ;
Cooke, WF ;
Delworth, TL ;
Dixon, KW ;
Donner, LJ ;
Dunne, KA ;
Freidenreich, SM ;
Garner, ST ;
Gudgel, RG ;
Gordon, CT ;
Held, IM ;
Hemler, RS ;
Horowitz, LW ;
Klein, SA ;
Knutson, TR ;
Kushner, PJ ;
Langenhost, AR ;
Lau, NC ;
Liang, Z ;
Malyshev, SL ;
Milly, PCD ;
Nath, MJ ;
Ploshay, JJ ;
Ramaswamy, V ;
Schwarzkopf, MD ;
Shevliakova, E ;
Sirutis, JJ ;
Soden, BJ ;
Stern, WF ;
Thompson, LA ;
Wilson, RJ ;
Wittenberg, AT ;
Wyman, BL .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2004, 17 (24) :4641-4673
[6]   The influence of different El Nino types on the South American rainfall [J].
Andreoli, Rita Valeria ;
de Oliveira, Suzana Soares ;
Kayano, Mary Toshie ;
Viegas, Juarez ;
Ferreira de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto ;
Candido, Luiz Antonio .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 37 (03) :1374-1390
[7]   Precipitation over eastern South America and the South Atlantic Sea surface temperature during neutral ENSO periods [J].
Bombardi, Rodrigo J. ;
Carvalho, Leila M. V. ;
Jones, Charles ;
Reboita, Michelle S. .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2014, 42 (5-6) :1553-1568
[8]   The South Atlantic dipole and variations in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model simulations [J].
Bombardi, Rodrigo J. ;
Carvalho, Leila M. V. .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2011, 36 (11-12) :2091-2102
[9]   IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system [J].
Bombardi, Rodrigo J. ;
Carvalho, Leila M. V. .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2009, 33 (7-8) :893-916
[10]   Characteristics of Intense Convection in Subtropical South America as Influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation [J].
Bruick, Zachary S. ;
Rasmussen, Kristen L. ;
Rowe, Angela K. ;
McMurdie, Lynn A. .
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2019, 147 (06) :1947-1966