Prediction performance of space weather forecast centers following the extreme events of October and November 2003

A review and analysis of the five strongest interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events of late October and early November 2003 ( the strongest events of the "Halloween'' epoch) are studied with respect to the prediction performance of five space weather forecast centers. Accurate time-of-arrival predictions and rapid responses to the upstream detection of strong ICMEs are of paramount importance to critical infrastructures such as power companies. Prediction and performance analysis results indicate that ( 1) the average time-of-arrival error for all forecast centers was 9.26 hours, which is consistent with the guidance errors associated with the leading shock propagation prediction models; ( 2) time-of-arrival predictions from Solar Terrestrial Dispatch ( STD) surpassed all others in accuracy, with an average time-of-arrival prediction error of 1.22 hours; ( 3) overall, the strongest ICME impact events of 29 and 30 October were the most poorly predicted; ( 4) the most accurate shock propagation prediction model operated by the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks was the HAFv.2 model; and ( 5) STD provided the most rapid notification to the Northeast Power Coordinating Council concerning the detection and imminent arrival of most of the ICMEs. A better method of conveying time-of-arrival prediction information is presented that may be more easily digested by consumers of space weather services.