This paper addresses the energy management of a grid-connected renewable generation plant coupled with a battery energy storage device in the capacity firming market, designed to promote renewable power generation facilities in small non-interconnected grids. The core contribution is to propose a probabilistic forecast-driven strategy, modeled as a min-max-min robust optimization problem with recourse. It is solved using a Benders-dual cutting plane algorithm and a column and constraints generation algorithm in a tractable manner. A dynamic risk-averse parameters selection strategy based on the quantile forecasts distribution is proposed to improve the results. A secondary contribution is to use a recently developed deep learning model known as normalizing flows to generate quantile forecasts of renewable generation for the robust optimization problem. This technique provides a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. Overall, the robust approach improves the results over a deterministic approach with nominal point forecasts by finding a trade-off between conservative and risk-seeking policies. The case study uses the photovoltaic generation monitored on-site at the University of Liege (ULiege), Belgium.
机构:
MIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
MIT, Ctr Operat Res, Cambridge, MA 02139 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Bertsimas, Dimitris
Litvinov, Eugene
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机构:
ISO New England, Dept Business Architecture& Technol, Holyoke, MA 01040 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Litvinov, Eugene
Sun, Xu Andy
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机构:
Georgia Inst Technol, H Milton Stewart Sch Ind & Syst Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Sun, Xu Andy
Zhao, Jinye
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h-index: 0
机构:
ISO New England, Dept Business Architecture& Technol, Holyoke, MA 01040 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Zhao, Jinye
Zheng, Tongxin
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
ISO New England, Dept Business Architecture& Technol, Holyoke, MA 01040 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
机构:
MIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
MIT, Ctr Operat Res, Cambridge, MA 02139 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Bertsimas, Dimitris
Litvinov, Eugene
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
ISO New England, Dept Business Architecture& Technol, Holyoke, MA 01040 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Litvinov, Eugene
Sun, Xu Andy
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Georgia Inst Technol, H Milton Stewart Sch Ind & Syst Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Sun, Xu Andy
Zhao, Jinye
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
ISO New England, Dept Business Architecture& Technol, Holyoke, MA 01040 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Zhao, Jinye
Zheng, Tongxin
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
ISO New England, Dept Business Architecture& Technol, Holyoke, MA 01040 USAMIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA