Tumor Anatomy Scoring and Renal Function for Nephron-Sparing Treatment Selection in Patients With Small Renal Masses: A Microsimulation-Based Decision Analysis

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this article is to compare the effectiveness of a treatment algorithm for small renal tumors incorporating the nephrometry score, a renal tumor anatomy scoring system developed by urologists, with the current standard of uniformly recommended partial nephrectomy in patients with mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD). MATERIALS AND METHODS. We developed a state-transition microsimulation model to project life expectancy (LE) in hypothetic patients with baseline mild or moderate CKD undergoing treatment of small renal masses. Our model incorporated the nephrometry score, which is predictive of postsurgical renal function loss. The two tested strategies were uniform treatment with partial nephrectomy and selective treatment based on nephrometry score and CKD stage, including percutaneous ablation for CKD stages 2 or 3a and intermediate-to-high nephrometry score or stage 3b CKD and any nephrometry score; otherwise, partial nephrectomy was assumed for other CKD stages and nephrometry scores. The model accounted for benign and malignant lesions, renal function decline, recurrence, and metastatic disease rates specific to each treatment, mortality by CKD stage, and comorbidities. Sensitivity analysis tested the stability of results when varying key parameters. RESULTS. Selective treatment with partial nephrectomy resulted in an average LE benefit of 0.48 year (95% interpercentile range, 0.42-0.54 year) in 65-year-old men and 0.37 year (95% interpercentile range, 0.30-0.43 year) in 65-year-old women relative to nondiscriminatory surgery, due to worsening CKD and cardiovascular mortality associated with partial nephrectomy. Model results were most sensitive to the rate of renal function decline and CKD-related mortality. CONCLUSION. Nephron-sparing treatment selection for small renal masses based on nephrometry score may improve LE in patients with mild or moderate CKD.