The future of human resource development - A Delphi study

In a globalized economy, human resources development activities are central to companies' innovativeness and future success. We conducted a delphi study, combining qualitative and quantitative methods, to generate an empirically sound assessment of the likely future role of human resource development in German corporations. The first step consisted in qualitative interviews with 15 experts of the field, generating different scenarios of the future. In a second step, N=217 experts rated the desirability, current implementation, and likely future diffusion of the human resource practices described in the scenarios. In a third step, N=195 experts provided refined estimates after being confronted with their colleagues' ratings from the prior round. Key predictions are more emphasis on systematic evaluation, stronger integration of human resource development with organizational development and personnel selection, the rise of knowledge management, and a strong focus on older employees.