A rapid-response earthquake fatality estimation model for mainland China

To rapidly estimate fatalities following an earthquake and provide adequate emergency response and medical rescue, a suitable model should be developed according to local data and physical conditions. Mainland China is divided into five regions based on the regionalization of tectonic background, seismic activity, and development level. This study develops several earthquake fatality ratio estimation models for different regions using 377 earthquake fatalities and population exposure data from 1951 to 2018 provided by the Mainland China Composite Damaging Earthquake Catalog. The earthquake fatality records are normalized by the Human Development Index to the year 2018 level. Because the fatality records of a few catastrophic events have a negative impact on the regression results of all events, we also develop fatality ratio estimation models, especially for catastrophic earthquakes. Furthermore, we use the recorded fatalities of two example periods to verify the applicability of the fatality ratio estimation models. The results show that more than 85% of estimations are within one order of magnitude compared to the records. Finally, based on the verified model and the normal cumulative distribution method, we also try to determine the earthquake emergency response level. We then perform a rapid estimation of fatalities for the 2019 Changning Ms 5.8 earthquake, obtaining an expected result. The applicability of the proposed model to post-earthquake rapid fatality estimation and disaster assessment of earthquake scenarios is expected to play an important role in future earthquake relief planning and postearthquake rapid emergency response of the Chinese government.