Are currency crises predictable?

被引：42

作者：

Goldfajn, I

Valdes, RO

机构：

[1] Int Monetary Fund, Res Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA

[2] Banco Cent Chile, Res Dept, Santiago 1180, Chile

来源：

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW | 1998年 / 42卷 / 3-5期

关键词：

expected devaluation; overvaluation; crisis prediction;

D O I：

10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00126-8

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining the crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different exchange rate misalignment measures into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：873 / 885

页数：13

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