Prognostic value of nomogram based on pre-treatment inflammatory markers in patients with pulmonary-only synchronous metastases from colorectal cancer

Background: The inflammatory markers were important factors affecting proliferation, invasiveness and metastasis of tumors. However, the prognostic value of inflammatory markers and related nomogram in patients with pulmonary-only synchronous metastases (POSM) from colorectal cancer has not been reported. Materials and methods: A total of 98 POSM patients undergoing resection of colorectal cancer were included. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis were used to estimate the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The nomogram was built based on multivariate Cox analysis model and evaluated by calibration curve, concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Results: The multivariate analysis showed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was prognostic factor of OS (HR = 213, 95%CI: 1.54-4.84) and PFS (HR = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.13-2.82). Elevated alkaline phosphatase (ALP) also was predictor of poor OS (HR = 1.99, 95%CI: 1.12-3.51) and PFS (HR = 2.23, 95%CI: 1.40-3.55). The early N stage and solitary pulmonary metastases had significant survival benefit for OS, while advanced T stage was independently related with worse PFS. Nomograms were consist of above significant risk factors, with C-index of 0.742 for OS and 0.656 for PFS. The calibration curves showed non-significant deviations between predicted and actual probability of OS and PFS. Conclusions: Pre-treatment NLR and ALP were independently associated with OS and PFS in POSM patients. The nomograms involving inflammatory markers and clinicopathological factors were practical in predicting survival, which may help to guide use of therapeutic strategy and cancer surveillance.