Bold choices: how ethnic inequalities in educational attainment are suppressed

In this paper, I examine ethnic inequalities in educational attainment in England and Wales. I focus on the two main educational transitions in England and Wales: the transition at age 16, from compulsory to post-compulsory education, and the transition at age 18, from school to university. I take into account the distinction made by Boudon (1974) between 'primary' and 'secondary' effects, and ask how far overall ethnic inequalities in educational attainment can be attributed to primary or secondary effects. The paper first assesses the extent of gross ethnic inequalities in the chances of making each transition, before asking how far the picture is altered by controlling for social class background. I then determine the relative importance of primary and secondary effects in creating ethnic inequalities in educational attainment. Results show that both primary and secondary effects are operating to produce ethnic inequalities in educational attainment. In general, where ethnic groups are disadvantaged relative to the white majority, this is due to their lower average levels of performance. But conditional on their performance, ethnic minority students are much more likely to choose to make educational transitions, suggesting that if performance effects were eliminated, all ethnic minority groups would be advantaged relative to the white majority.