Treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection. A study of best predictors for response

Objective: The aim of this study was evaluate the rate of sustained viral response (SVR) and the influence of different factors on the SVR in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection treated with pegylated interferon alfa 2a and ribavirin. Methods: We retrospectively analysed 272 naive patients with chronic hepatitis C who had been treated for 24 weeks or 48 weeks and had been followed for an additional 6 months thereafter. Results: Out of 272 patients, 243 completed the entire treatment. The overall SVR rate in intent-to-treat analysis was 66.5% and in treated patients was 74.5%. In an univariate analysis, the SVR was associated with age <40 years (84.4%), pre-treatment viral load <500.000 IU/ml (86.9%), non-1 genotype HCV (86.4%), non cirrhosis or pre-cirrhosis (76.5%), rapid virologic response (RVR) (91.4%) and early virologic response (EVR) (83.8%). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the presence of an infection caused by a non-1 genotype and to achieve ERV were independent predictors of SVR. The RVR and histological stage of liver disease were not included in the multivariate analysis because these data were not available in most of the patients. The PPV and NVP of RVR were 91.5% and 48.7% respectively, of EVR were 83.8% and 95.8% respectively and of complete EVR were 91.3% and 78.7%, respectively. Conclusions: The SVR was higher than in other studies. The genotype and EVR were independent factors to predict the effect of antiviral therapy. The EVR had a high NPV and the complete EVR a high PPV.