Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

被引：54

作者：

Villarino, Ernesto ^{[1
]}

Chust, Guillem ^{[1
]}

Licandro, Priscilla ^{[2
]}

Butenschoen, Momme ^{[3
]}

Ibaibarriaga, Leire ^{[1
]}

Larranaga, Aitor ^{[4
]}

Irigoien, Xabier ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] AZTI Tecnalia, Div Marine Res, Sukarrieta 48395, Bizkaia, Spain

[2] Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, Lab, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England

[3] PML, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England

[4] Univ Basque Country, Dept Plant Biol & Ecol, Lab Stream Ecol, Bilbao 48080, Spain

[5] KAUST, Red Sea Res Ctr, Thuwal 239556900, Saudi Arabia

来源：

MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES | 2015年 / 531卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Zooplankton; Habitat suitability; GAM; Climate change; North Atlantic; Biogeography;

D O I：

10.3354/meps11299

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080-2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatic-biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001-2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (-15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12-13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43-79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970-1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987-2004).

引用

页码：121 / 142

页数：22

共 118 条

[41]

Greve W., Reiners F., Nast J., Hoffmann S., Helgoland Roads meso-and macrozooplankton time-series 1974 to 2004: Lessons from 30 years of single spot, high frequency sampling at the only off-shore island of the North Sea, Helgol Mar Res, 58, pp. 274-288, (2004)

[42]

Guisan A., Thuiller W., Predicting species distribution: Offering more than simple habitat models, Ecol Lett, 8, pp. 993-1009, (2005)

[43]

Guisan A., Zimmermann N.E., Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology, Ecol Model, 135, pp. 147-186, (2000)

[44]

Hanley J.A., McNeil B.J., The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (roc) curve, Radiology, 143, pp. 29-36, (1982)

[45]

Hastie T.J., Tibshirani R.J., Generalized Additive Models, (1990)

[46]

Ejh H., Harris L.R., Yashayaev I., Distributions of Calanus spp. and other mesozooplankton in the Labrador Sea in relation to hydrography in spring and summer (1995-2000), Prog Oceanogr, 59, pp. 1-30, (2003)

[47]

Heath M.R., Boyle P.R., Gislason A., Wsc G., Et al., Comparative ecology of over-wintering Calanus finmarchicus in the northern North Atlantic, and implications for life-cycle patterns, ICES J Mar Sci, 61, pp. 698-708, (2004)

[48]

Helaouet P., Beaugrand G., Macroecology of Calanus finmarchicus and C. Helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas, Mar Ecol Prog ser, 345, pp. 147-165, (2007)

[49]

Helaouet P., Beaugrand G., Physiology, ecological niches and species distribution, Ecosystems, 12, pp. 1235-1245, (2009)

[50]

Helaouet P., Beaugrand G., Reid P.C., Macrophysiology of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic Ocean, Prog Oceanogr, 91, pp. 217-228, (2011)

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 →