Impacts of industrial structure and technical progress on carbon emission intensity: Evidence from 281 cities in China

In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, the low-carbon economy has become the fundamental means of achieving sustainable development. To find an effective solution to reduce carbon emissions, it is important to identify the dominant factors contributing to carbon emission intensity (CEI). Based on refined indicators and a dynamic spatial panel model, we build a comprehensive framework to quantify the impact of the industrial structure and technical progress on the CEI and conduct empirical research on 281 prefecture-level cities in China during 2006-2016. The results show that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity of CEI values are significant and positive among cities. Technical change and efficiency improvements are the dominant factors behind CEI change. Technical progress plays a significant role in reducing the CEI, whereas the carbon emissions rebound effect decreases these positive impacts. Further, the combined effect of industrial structure optimization and technical progress on reducing carbon intensity is not significant as we have expected. Based on our findings, we suggest specific, targeted policies to reduce CEI, including promoting regional green technology, focusing on combining green technologies with green cities, formulating different urban development strategies and strengthening cooperation among cities.