Incidence of thyroid cancer in Italy, 1991-2005: time trends and age-period-cohort effects

被引：94

作者：

Dal Maso, L. ^{[1
,2
]}

Lise, M. ^{[1
,3
]}

Zambon, P. ^{[4
]}

Falcini, F. ^{[5
]}

Crocetti, E. ^{[6
]}

Serraino, D. ^{[1
,7
]}

Cirilli, C. ^{[8
]}

Zanetti, R. ^{[9
]}

Vercelli, M. ^{[10
]}

Ferretti, S. ^{[11
]}

Stracci, F. ^{[12
]}

De Lisi, V. ^{[13
]}

Busco, S. ^{[14
]}

Tagliabue, G. ^{[15
]}

Budroni, M. ^{[16
]}

Tumino, R. ^{[17
,18
]}

Giacomin, A. ^{[19
]}

Franceschi, S. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] IRCCS, Aviano Canc Ctr, Epidemiol & Biostat Unit, Aviano, Italy

[2] Univ Milan, Dept Occupat Hlth, Sect Med Stat, Milan, Italy

[3] Int Agcy Res Canc, F-69372 Lyon, France

[4] Ist Oncol Veneto IRCCS, Veneto Canc Registry, Padua, Italy

[5] Canc Inst Romagna IRST, Romagna Canc Registry, Meldola, Italy

[6] Canc Prevent & Res Ist ISPO, Tuscany Canc Registry, Florence, Italy

[7] Direz Cent Sanita, Friuli Venezia Giulia Canc Registry, Trieste, Italy

[8] Policlin Modena, Modena Canc Registry, Modena, Italy

[9] Osped S Giovanni Battista CPO, Piedmont Canc Registry, Turin, Italy

[10] Univ Genoa, IST, Liguria Canc Registry, Genoa, Italy

[11] Univ Ferrara, Ferrara Canc Registry, I-44100 Ferrara, Italy

[12] Univ Perugia, Umbria Canc Registry, I-06100 Perugia, Italy

[13] Osped Parma, Parma Prov Canc Registry, Parma, Italy

[14] AUSL Latina, Latina Canc Registry, Latina, Italy

[15] Ist Nazl Tumori, Lombardia Canc Registry, I-20133 Milan, Varese Province, Italy

[16] ASL1, Canc Registry Sassari, Sassari, Italy

[17] Civile MP Arezzo Hosp, ASP 7, Dept Oncol, Canc Registry, Ragusa, Italy

[18] Civile MP Arezzo Hosp, ASP 7, Dept Oncol, Histopathol Unit, Ragusa, Italy

[19] Provincia Biella CPO, Registro Tumori Piemonte, Biella, Italy

来源：

ANNALS OF ONCOLOGY | 2011年 / 22卷 / 04期

关键词：

incidence; Italy; thyroid cancer; time trends; INCREASING INCIDENCE; CHANGING TRENDS; UNITED-STATES; CARCINOMA; PAPILLARY; MORTALITY; EXPOSURE; FRANCE; MODELS; IODINE;

D O I：

10.1093/annonc/mdq467

中图分类号：

R73 [肿瘤学];

学科分类号：

100214 ;

摘要：

Background: In Italy, some of the highest incidence rates (IRs) of thyroid cancer (TC) worldwide have been reported. Patients and methods: TC cases < 85 years of age reported to Italian cancer registries during 1991-2005 were included. Age-standardized IRs were computed for all TC and age-period-cohort effects were estimated for papillary TC. Results: IRs of TC were twofold higher in 2001-2005 than in 1991-1995 (18 and 8 per 100 000 women, 6 and 3 per 100 000 men, respectively). Increases were similar in the two sexes and nearly exclusively due to papillary TC. Increases of papillary TC by birth cohort were found in both sexes and among all age groups between 20 and 79 years. Age-period-cohort models showed a strong period effect in both sexes (rate ratio for 2001-2009 versus 1991-1995 = 2.5 in women and 2.3 in men), although IRs peaked at an earlier age in women (45-49 years) than men (65-69 years). Conclusion: The strength of the period effect in both sexes and the earlier onset in women than men strongly implicated increased medical surveillance in the upward trends of papillary TC incidence in Italy. The consequences of the current intense search for TC on morbidity and possible overtreatment, especially among young women, should be carefully evaluated.

引用

页码：957 / 963

页数：7

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