Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

被引:12
作者
Akbari-Alashti, Habib [1 ,2 ]
Soncini, Andrea [2 ]
Dinpashoh, Yagob [1 ]
Fakheri-Fard, Ahmad [1 ]
Talatahari, Siamak [1 ]
Bocchiola, Daniele [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tabriz, Dept Water Engn, Tabriz, Iran
[2] Politecn Milan, Dept ICA, L Da Vinci 2, I-20133 Milan, Italy
[3] EVK2CNR Assoc, Bergamo, Italy
关键词
climate change; hydrological projections; Iran; reservoir operation; uncertainty; LEARNING-BASED OPTIMIZATION; FUTURE HYDROLOGICAL REGIMES; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS; CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT; WATER-RESOURCES; MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION; PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION; UPPER INDUS; BASIN; PERFORMANCE;
D O I
10.1002/hyp.13254
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34x10(9)m(3)) and Alavian (6x10(7)m(3)). We tune the Poly-Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow-fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non-linear decision rules during control run (1990-2010 for Dez and 2000-2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC-Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly-Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching-learning-based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with -1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and -6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average -7% yearly and -13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by -10% on average at half century and -13% at the end of century, with streamflows -14% yearly and -18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.
引用
收藏
页码:3254 / 3271
页数:18
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