Geophysical study of the Ota-VF Xira-Lisbon-Sesimbra fault zone and the lower Tagus Cenozoic basin

This paper focuses on the interpretation of seismic reflection, gravimetric, topographic, deep seismic refraction and seismicity data to study the recently proposed Ota-Vila Franca de Xira-Lisbon-Sesimbra (OVLS) fault zone and the lower Tagus Cenozoic basin (LTCB). The studied structure is located in the lower Tagus valley (LTV), an area with over 2 million inhabitants that has experienced historical earthquakes which caused significant damage and economical losses (1344, 1531 and 1909 earthquakes) and whose tectonic sources are thought to be local but mostly remain unknown. This study, which is intended as a contribution to improve the seismic hazard of the area and the neotectonics of the region, shows that the above-proposed fault zone is probably a large crustal thrust fault that constitutes the western limit of the LTCB. Gravimetric, deep refraction and seismic reflection data suggest that the LTCB is a foreland basin, as suggested previously by some authors, and that the OVLS northern and central sectors act as the major thrusts. The southern sector fault has been dominated by strike-slip kinematics due to a different orientation to the stress field. Indeed, geological outcrop and seismic reflection data interpretation suggests that, based on fault geometry and type of deformation at depth, the structure is composed of three major segments. These data suggest that these segments have different kinematics in agreement with their orientation to the regional stress field. The OVLS apparently controls the distribution of the seismicity in the area. Geological and geophysical information previously gathered also points that the central segment is active into the Quaternary. The segment lengths vary between 20 and 45 km. Since faults usually rupture only by segments, maximum expectable earthquake magnitudes and other parameters have been calculated for the three sectors of the OVLS fault zone using empirical relationships between earthquake statistics and geological parameters available from the literature. Calculated slip rates are compatible with previous estimates for the area (0.33 mm yr(-1)). A more accurate estimation of the OVLS throw in the Quaternary sediments is therefore of vital importance for a more accurate evaluation of the seismic hazard of the area.