How would selecting for skill change flows of immigrants to the United States? A simulation of three merit-based point systems

The policies determining how the foreign born enter the United States are some of the most complicated, least understood, and most disliked of all federal policies. This paper uses New Immigrant Survey (2003) data to examine how proposed changes to U.S. immigration policy might alter the composition of legal permanent residents (LPRs) admitted. Specifically, we consider the 2007 federal proposal that would have placed greater emphasis on employment and skills by instituting a merit-based point system while eliminating some types of family sponsorship. We also simulate point scores for the 2003 LPR cohort according to the point systems used in Canada and Australia. We find that, despite significant variation in point allocations, the three systems would admit similar numbers and types of immigrants. In the 2007 U.S. proposal, work experience in the United States is extremely important for earning high point scores. Thus, the proposal would place even more stress on temporary visa programs.