Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

被引：674

作者：

Carpenter, S. R. ^{[1
]}

Cole, J. J. ^{[2
]}

Pace, M. L. ^{[3
]}

Batt, R. ^{[1
]}

Brock, W. A. ^{[4
]}

Cline, T. ^{[1
]}

Coloso, J. ^{[3
]}

Hodgson, J. R. ^{[5
]}

Kitchell, J. F. ^{[1
]}

Seekell, D. A. ^{[3
]}

Smith, L. ^{[1
]}

Weidel, B. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[2] Cary Inst Ecosyst Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545 USA

[3] Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA

[4] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[5] St Norbert Coll, Dept Biol, De Pere, WI 54115 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2011年 / 332卷 / 6033期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

TROPHIC CASCADES; ECOLOGICAL-SYSTEMS; PLANKTON; PHYTOPLANKTON; INDICATORS; PATTERNS; SIGNALS; CHAOS; FISH;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1203672

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.

引用

页码：1079 / 1082

页数：4