Analysis of photovoltaic system performance time series: Seasonality and performance loss

被引:62
作者
Phinikarides, Alexander [1 ]
Makrides, George [1 ]
Zinsser, Bastian [2 ]
Schubert, Markus [2 ]
Georghiou, George E. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Cyprus, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, FOSS Res Ctr Sustainable Energy, PV Technol Lab, CY-1678 Nicosia, Cyprus
[2] Univ Stuttgart, Inst Photovolta Ipv, D-70569 Stuttgart, Germany
关键词
Crystalline silicon; Thin-film; Degradation; Performance loss; Seasonal decomposition; PV MODULES; TEMPERATURE COEFFICIENTS; CONDUCTIVITY CHANGES; TECHNICAL EVALUATION; DEGRADATION; PARAMETERS; ESTIMATORS; BEHAVIOR;
D O I
10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.091
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
In this work, the seasonality and performance loss rates of eleven grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems of different technologies were evaluated through seasonal adjustment. The classical seasonal decomposition (CSD) and X-12-ARIMA statistical techniques were applied on monthly DC performance ratio, R-p, time series, constructed from field measurements over the systems' first five years of operation. The results have shown that the R-p of crystalline silicon (c-Si) technologies was higher during winter. This was also the case for the copper indium gallium-diselenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe) technologies but with lower seasonal amplitude. The amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology exhibited a different seasonal profile, with high R-p during summer and autumn and low during winter. In addition, the trends extracted from the application of CSD and X-12-ARIMA on three-year, four-year and five-year R-p time series were used to estimate linear performance loss rates. A comparison between standard linear regression (LR), CSD and X-12-ARIMA has shown that CSD and X-12-ARIMA resulted in higher rates overall for c-Si, 1.07 and 0.93%/year respectively, but with significantly less uncertainty than LR. Lastly, it was shown that X-12-ARIMA provided statistical inference in the presence of outliers and produced model residuals that were uncorrelated, in contrast to CSD. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:51 / 63
页数:13
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