An Enhancement to Cumulant-based Probabilistic Power Flow Methodologies

Renewable energy sources, such as wind and photovoltaic solar, have been increasingly integrated into electricity grids. They have introduced additional uncertainty to power systems along with uncertainty due to stochastic nature of demand. Traditional deterministic power flow does not provide sufficient information for the calculation and analysis of such power systems; therefore, to manage such uncertainties, probabilistic power flow methodologies need to be used. This paper presents a cumulant-based probabilistic power flow approach in which we develop a technique to deal with various probability distributions that represent different sources of uncertainty in power systems. The proposed approach is caried out on the modified IEEE-14 bus test system, showing good performance in comparison with the result obtained by Monte Carlo simulation.