System dynamics modeling of lake water management under climate change

被引:9
作者
Bozorg-Haddad, Omid [1 ]
Dehghan, Paniz [1 ]
Zolghadr-Asli, Babak [1 ]
Singh, Vijay P. [2 ,3 ]
Chu, Xuefeng [4 ]
Loaiciga, Hugo A. [5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tehran, Coll Agr & Nat Resources, Fac Agr Engn & Technol, Dept Irrigat & Reclamat Engn, Tehran, Iran
[2] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, 321 Scoates Hall, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
[3] Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 321 Scoates Hall, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
[4] North Dakota State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Dept 2470, Fargo, ND 58108 USA
[5] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Isla Vista, CA 93106 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT; IMPACTS; PERFORMANCE; BASIN; RELIABILITY; RULES;
D O I
10.1038/s41598-022-09212-x
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Lake Urmia, the twentieth largest lake in the world, is the most valuable aquatic ecosystem in Iran. The lake water level has decreased in recent years due to human activities and climate change. Several studies have highlighted the significant roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors on the shrinkage of the lake. Management policies for water resources harvesting must be adopted to adapt to climate change and avoid the consequent problems stemming from the drought affecting Lake Urmia, and rationing must be applied to the upstream water demands. This study analyzes strategies and evaluates their effectiveness in overcoming the Urmia Lake crisis. Specifically, system dynamics analysis was performed for simulating the water volume of Lake Urmia, and the Hadley Centre coupled model was applied to project surface temperature and precipitation for two future periods: 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. Six management scenarios were considered for decreasing the allocation of agricultural water demand corresponding to two options: (1) one-reservoir option (Bukan reservoir only), and (2) six-reservoir option. The net inflow of Urmia Lake was simulated for the two future periods with the IHACRES model and with artificial neural network models under the six management scenarios. The annual average volumes of Lake Urmia would be 30 x 10(9) and 12 x 10(9) m(3) over the first and second future periods, respectively, without considering the management scenarios. The lake volumes would rise by about 50% and 75% for the first and second periods, respectively under the management scenarios that involve strict protective measures and elimination of the effect of all dams and their reservoirs. Implementing strict measures would increase the annual average lake volume to 21 x 10(9) m(3) in the second period; yet, this volume would be less than the long-term average and strategic volume. The human water use would be completely eliminated under Scenario 6. Nevertheless, Lake Urmia would experience a considerable loss of storage because of drought.
引用
收藏
页数:17
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